The ES_F in Pictures
What price is telling me - weekly and intraday setups
The wide-angle view for the weekly still shows buyers will be engaged if we hold 4420 with a tighter support at 4435. Buyers will become more aggressive above 4460.
Levels to keep in mind above 4442- as long as we hold last week’s low, more buyers will try to press us above 4460 and 4486.
Metastock’s current signals show that the short engaged on the early entry of the bounce on Friday. At present, traders are trying to find the bid (looking for lower support) - but buyers are still prepped to add to positions as it moves into congested support. The structures on the daily time frame still shows buying pressure as overall trend is still grinding from higher lows to higher highs.
I expect a battle at these prices near 4430 so I would be unwilling to short here on a longer timeline. On a tighter time frame, however, I would consider the scalp on any bounce to 4440 to 4450 and look for a test of lower lows, or I would leave the trade. Bounces will be selling zones as long as we stay below 4485.
More time frames from the MotiveWave platform
-Above we see the gap still open as well as our measured balance zones. We sit beneath an upward sloping hull average - suggesting that buyers are likely to try to recover the recently lost resistance at the first pass into heavy congestion. Momentum below is also above zero, but fading. This formation is typical on pullbacks into support that bounce. Be aware of that if you are thinking about shorting.
Digging deeper with a look at the TPO profiles.
Notice how fat the profile of Friday was at these lower levels - indicative of traders battling and creating congestion. A look to the left shows this same kind of battle just below when the chart broke out. To me, this suggests that buyers are very keen on defending this line and if they do not, we will fall to the bottom of the prior congestion near 4401.
Now a look at the VWAP envelope
The lower edge of that VWAP envelope also converges at 4401ish if we fail the region near 4435.
Finally, a look at the volume profile, with the highlight of 50% of the volume shaded.
Again, this converges with the current battle zone of 4435ish.
The final chart on the tight time frame shows us how we position and structure the trade before we execute.
